Living With Chavez

From his stride and stridency, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is increasingly looking like the standard-bearer of the International Left his detractors have long claimed he has hungered for.
Chavez’s recent visits to Russia, Iran, Malaysia, Mali, Angola and China clearly reflected the resoluteness of his quest for global influence. If he gets that temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council, you can expect the Chavez to amplify his attitudes and approach.
Of late, a growing number of realists have sought to play down the substance of the Chavez phenomenon. His incessant anti-American rhetoric may actually be driven by political compulsions at home. And his ability to hold America hostage by cutting off oil sales? Probably considerable. Yet recognition of that threat has given some way to a realization that the United States imports only about 12 percent of its petroleum needs from Venezuela. The United States, on the other hand, accounts for more than half of Venezuela’s oil receipts.
Chavez’s announcement last week of plans for a six-fold increase in oil sales to China over the next 10 years might have more bark than bite. For one thing, China currently imports only about two percent of its oil needs from Venezuela. Moreover, there are geographical and technical challenges to overcome before the trickle becomes a flow. Even if Caracas-induced pain were to bite the Americans, they could perhaps expect to get palliatives elsewhere. Chavez the economic threat might not be one worth losing sleep over.
What about Chavez the politician? The Venezuelan president has been achieving growing political influence in his neighborhood and other parts of the developing world. With anti-Americanism set to become the stock in trade for the foreseeable future, Chavez can expect to count on an expanding constituency.
Oil profits have funded Venezuela’s multibillion-dollar arms purchases from Russia, including jet fighters, military helicopters and assault rifles. As a former military man who still needs to nurture sections of that constituency, the imperative of re-equipping the armed forces cannot be overlooked, especially if it also means boosting Venezuelans pride in themselves. The downside, of course, is that Chavez operates in an environment where belligerency can break out at extremely short notice.
From another standpoint, the outlook is more assuring. The United States has lived with Cuba’s Fidel Castro for almost five decades. There should be few reasons to doubt its ability to coexist with his anointed successor.