Tories’ Hope – And Fear

Does Boris Johnson’s election as London’s mayor mean that Britain may be ready to bring back the Conservative Party from over a decade in opposition?
Undaunted by the mockery of politicians and pundits alike, the Tory MP and former journalist ran an impressive campaign. The Conservative Party, which won the largest share of the vote and the most councilors, topped off its winning streak by gaining control of the capital.
The mayoral contest may have had little resonance outside London. Yet political parties and the media bestowed on it a national significance. Conservative leader David Cameron, for his part, took some risk in backing a maverick candidate. He must be relishing this moment of triumph.
The Labour party’s worst local election results in at least 40 years was not simply a mid-term protest, as some ministers in Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s cabinet have suggested. Nor can it be attributed to economic uncertainty alone.
Labour’s loss stemmed from a variety of reasons, not least its decision to axe the 10p income tax rate, which hit its core supporters. At a wider level, the results reflect a fundamental shift in public opinion. Voters who abandoned the Tories and flocked to Labour in 1997 today see a government wearied by incumbency. A Conservative comeback is now firmly within the realm of possibility.
Yet the Tories’ fortune would depend on much more. Mayor Johnson could help by delivering on his campaign promises, especially those on transport and crime. No less important will be the question of personality. The Boris Johnson Britain knew was not in evidence in the polls. The gaffes and gaudiness many expected were conspicuous by their absence. Yet these traits could return once Johnson settles into his job.
Johnson has now become the international face of London. As such, he will invite intense media and political scrutiny. Much will depend on how he handles the examination. The Conservatives certainly wouldn’t want to be tied to the mayor – irrespective of success or failure – in the run-up to the next general election, expected in two years’ time.