Flashback: Cold War II?

Another western experiment in transplanting democracy on eastern soil has come undone. A little over a year after the triumphant Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which seemed to have put the former Soviet republic on a firmly pro-western course, Moscow has emerged the clear winner.
President Victor Yushchenko has been humbled at the polls. His party came out a poor third behind the groupings headed by Yulia Tymoshenko, his former ally, and Viktor Yanukovich, his opponent in the disputed 2004 presidential elections.
Now, it would be premature to write off Ukrainians’ aspirations for western-style democracy. Ukraine’s elections were the first in the former Soviet Union to be certifiably free and fair, barring, of course, the three Baltic republics. Ukrainian voters have proved they can change their government through an election, in sharp contrast to the presidential election in Belarus next door. More importantly, Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and the other leaders of the Orange Revolution still have a majority in the new parliament.
The logical course for President Yushchenko would be to appoint Tymoshenko as premier. The problem, though, is that Yushchenko last summer had sacked the charismatic populist. Mutual antipathy for Yanukovich and his Regions party, which emerged as the largest bloc in the party, can only go so far in reviving those heady days.
All the same, cold political realism might spur Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to bury the hatchet and roar ahead. This could have been a safe course had the former allies only harbored personal differences.
While Tymoshenko shares Yushchenko’s zeal for integration with the European Union, she is less enthusiastic on joining NATO. Moreover, the gaps in economic policies between the two are stark. Yushchenko remains committed to liberal economic reform, while Tymoshenko is more enamored of sprinkles of welfare spending. Tymoshenko antipathy to big business also sets her apart.
Tymoshenko could worsen Ukraine's relations with Moscow, especially considering her campaign pledge to revoke the controversial gas contract signed this year. Making the Orange coalition work could prove decidedly more complicated than resurrecting it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will no doubt be interesting in all the wiggle room he can find in the corridors of power in Kiev to stall the country’s pro-western slide.
As for the rest of the world, Ukraine’s election probably doesn’t signify the onset of a new Cold War between the East and West. Considering the rate at which the mercury is falling in relations between Moscow and Washington, it wouldn’t hurt to start bundling up.

Originally posted on Tuesday, March 28, 2006