The Graying Of The World

THE latest projections on international population patterns make a compelling case for concerted action to meet the challenges posed by ageing in developed as well as developing nations. By 2005, according to a recent United Nations report, the planet's population is expected to cross the nine billion mark from the current 6.7 billion.
That the bulk of the 2.5 billion increase would take place in the developing world is hardly news. What is new is the urgency the United Nations attaches to the graying of the developing world and to appropriate and timely policy interventions.
A rise in the number of men and women aged 60 years or over is expected to comprise half of the world's population growth by 2050. In developed countries, where fertility has been declining amid improved life expectancy, 20 per cent of the population is already over 60. The proportion is projected to rise to 33 per cent by 2050. In several of these countries, senior citizens already outnumber children.
The perceptible shift in demographic patterns has led governments to review economic and social policies that have worked well for decades. Health care, pensions, and social services that traditionally depended on tax contributions of a younger work force are no longer considered so viable. Many countries are introducing family friendly policies to make careers and parenthood more compatible. Others are exploring the politically charged option of inviting temporary or seasonal skilled and unskilled workers.
The onset of ageing is comparatively slow in developing countries, where eight per cent of the population is 60 years or older. The United Nations estimates that the number of children in the developing world - currently about two billion - would remain intact until the middle of the century. Much of the focus of governments thus continues to fall on education, health care, and social services for the young.
By 2050, in terms of aging, Asian, Latin American and Caribbean nations would be in the position Europe and North America are today. The challenge for governments in the developing world to come up with the requisite vision and commitment therefore becomes doubly daunting.