With each week, the prospect of a divided government is looming larger in the United States, after Democrats took control of both houses of Congress in January. From the war in Iraq to oversight of the White House, Congress is in a robust mood for action. Yet one important issue is likely to draw the White House and Capitol Hill closer: immigration.
Now that Senator Edward M. Kennedy sees the Bush plan, unveiled by the president in Arizona earlier this month, as “encouraging,” the logjam can be expected to be broken.
An ardent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, President George W. Bush had sought to address the issue early in his first term by, among other things, instituting a “guest worker” program and securing US borders. However, the 9/11 attacks shifted the nation’s focus and resources. Two years ago, when Bush revived his effort to regularize the 12 million illegal immigrants that run US farms, factories and other key sectors, he ran into strong opposition from his own Republican Party. They wanted Bush to construct a fence along the border with Mexico first.
A nation of immigrants, America’s views on the subject traditionally has been influenced by the economic cycle. When unemployment is low and voters feel they are doing well, immigration recedes in importance as a political issue. At around four per cent, unemployment in the United States remains lower than in many industrialized nations. Yet the decline in the quality of jobs available has changed perceptions. Traditional manufacturing jobs have been either outsourced or made redundant by technological advances. Those being created tend to pay less in terms of wages and benefits. Businesses claim they are forced to employ illegal immigrants because Americans are not available or willing to perform those jobs. A skeptical public sees this as an excuse to suppress wages.
Before last November’s congressional elections, Bush signed into law a measure aimed at fencing part of the Mexican border, but that did not help his party. The victorious Democrats insist that reform must address the reality that illegal foreign workers are key to many sectors of the economy. They support a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet strict conditions, such as learning English and paying fines and back taxes. In a highly polarized political environment, the promise of bipartisanship on even one vital national issue does offer some reassurance.
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