Monday, December 25, 2006

The Good News Pinochet Missed

Most Pakistanis support their military regime, according to a recent survey. And their neighbors, Indians, too, seem quite fascinated themselves.
The Thai generals seem to be enjoying similar admiration. Someone should have polled Thais.
What could this entail for the rest of the world? Are military regimes back in fashion as bulwarks against other authoritarian entities. Could the Iraqi and Afghan armies be deemed guarantors of stability?
In places outwardly too refined for the military to directly control the levers of power, the generals could probably back their own parties and politicians. After all, it was the Army Times editorial and collective criticisms from retired generals that sealed Donald Rumsfeld's fate long before the Democrats captured Congress from the GOP.
Turkey is a case where the military guarantees democratic stability -- as long as the politicians avoid injecting religion into statecraft. With Iran dead-set on acquire nuclear weapons, maybe the generals could emerge as an acceptable and modernist alternative to the mullahs.
Perhaps more and more retired generals could contest elections in places other than Israel.
The philosophical dimensions, too, could become clearer. If a state feels it needs institutionalized coercive powers to defend itself against adversaries, maybe the same force could be used to protect itself from within.
The saddest part of this survey is that poor Pinochet couldn't live to hear this.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Bicycling Our Way Out Of Iraq

[H]istorians will look back and say, “How come Bush and Blair couldn't see the threat?” That’s what they'll be asking.

It was one of those moments when Bush truly bared his soul.
Ever since the Democrats won the congressional elections last month, Bush has been bending over backward and running as fast as he can to accommodate the opposition. Bits and pieces of the Iraq Study Group leaked to the press gradually piled pressure on the White House. He even praised the Baker-Hamilton recommendations with scant regard to the morale of the military risking their lives and limbs in Iraq, although he was careful to rebuff some of them.
Was the commander in chief becoming the cut-and-run chief by proxy? Was legacy becoming more precious to Bush than victory in a war he staked his entire presidency on? Was he using the election results to trade America’s national security for securing his place in history?
If the Bush we saw Thursday is what we’re going to see over the next two years of his presidency, then there still is hope for those who believe in the genuineness of the Iraq war.
The premise of the WMD threat proved to be wrong. The democracy project is faltering to the point of failure. Saddam Hussein may have redeemed himself in the eyes of some of his most scathing critics. Yet there is one purpose of the Iraq war that Bush should have been candid about from the start: Oil-linked national security.
America can still withdraw from Iraq in humiliation. The plunge in the morale of the world’s most powerful military may not spell doom for the country. Isolationism can be accepted as a policy option once again. The Islamofascists may even leave us alone. But what are we going to do about oil?
The Democrats and the environmental kooks aren’t going to let us drill in Alaska or anywhere else. Even if they did, could the American economy sustain the price of oil? Would American consumers be prepared to pay $5 per gallon at the pump?
There’s a way to find out. Maybe Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and the rest of the Democratic brigade should bicycle their way to the new session of Congress next year. The Republicans who have gone into hibernation after the ISG report became public would want to join in in a true bipartisan spirit. Then ordinary Americans, consumed by guilt over our consumption of cheap oil ensured through the death, destruction and debris we inflict half a world away, may catch the habit.
If that happens, we could then rejuvenate the bicycle industry through federal subsidies – boosting employment. A fortress America fortified by a missile defense system would do us good, barring, perhaps, that giant asteroid we might miss.
Maybe we should pull out of Iraq.