Now that the Americans and Iranians have sat down on the same table for the first time since the Shah’s overthrow 30 years ago, expectations of an orange juice dividend have soared. The breadth of the Baghdad conference was designed to create the atmospherics so that both sides could calibrate their sips with their semantics.
Is it too much to expect a moderating influence on Iraq? Probably not. The moment Saudi King Abdullah played peace-broker between Hamas and Fatah, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinejad was itching to fortify the other Muslim flank. Now we have the Shia and Sunni patriarchs in full play. Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman Al Zawahiri had to step in with his audio message. No wonder Halliburton feels safe enough to relocate its headquarters to Dubai.
The game may have just begun. The Saudis and Iranians aren’t about to squander this chance at regional supremacy. With King Abdullah locked in his own battle with Al Qaeda, a resurgence of Shia power in Iraq is the last thing he needs. Ahmedinejad won’t countenance losing that influence so painstakingly built in Iraq. With Saddam gone, the more ex-Baathists have a good chance of returning to some level of influence if they can fully and verifiably prove their ability to restrain – if not end – their part of the insurgency. Compromise is everyone’s compulsion. It’s probably the prospect of some sanity entering the region – and not the urgency to avoid congressional subpoenas – that led Halliburton to decide to relocate its headquarters to that tiny patch of opulence between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
