The string of bad news for Barack Obama hasn’t brightened the prospects of a Hillary Clinton presidency. The junior senator from Illinois continues to lead his legislative colleague in the delegate count as well as in the popular vote.
The best hope for the former first lady is the working-class white voter. Obama’s speech on race relations has failed to mollify their concerns triggered by the hate mongering of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Obama’s readiness to throw his white grandmother under the bus in an effort to defend his spiritual adviser went a bit too far.
Sure, Granny must have had her moments of exasperation in private. But she went along with her daughter’s marriage to a black student from Kenya, didn’t she. Moreover, she dutifully raised her half-black grandson without much complaint. How can her “racism” be equated with the venom spewed by the Rev. Wright?
Clinton can’t afford to play the race card. Her husband left a disastrous impression by linking Obama’s victory in South Carolina to his color. Clinton’s assertion that states she has won have more electoral votes in the November poll than the states won by Obama is not unreasonable. But in the general bitterness of the campaign, it has prompted howls of derision. Obama, after all, could insist that he has greater backing from independent voters.
Ultimately, Clinton must fight the regular way. With Florida and Michigan increasingly unlikely to have their delegates seated at the convention, she must score big wins in Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, and beyond.
Specifically, Clinton must reach out to working class white voters with a message of patriotism rooted in her experience in the Senate Armed Services Committee. That may not help her win the delegate count in Denver. But she could at least hope to persuade “superdelegates” that she is better placed to defeat the presumptive Republican candidate, John McCain.
Admittedly, the Clinton campaign suffered a major blow when Bill Richardson, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico who served in Bill Clinton’s cabinet, endorsed Obama. But the damage may not be as severe as originally thought. The support of a great many superdelegates is still up for grabs. If Clinton is to keep them from emulating Richardson’s conversion, she must stop viewing the presidency with a sense of entitlement.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Saturday, March 22, 2008
A Sordid Battle Of Wills In Turkey
Imagine any European country where the judiciary suddenly calls for the disbandment of the ruling party, as well as a ban on the prime minister and the president – only months after the elected government, under political siege from factional interests, takes its case to the people and wins a landslide. Welcome to Turkey.
Turkey is in the throes of difficult membership negotiations with the European Union, much to the chagrin of the current governments in France and Germany. But its accession prospects are also clouded by the battle of wills between the neo-Islamist – and pro European – government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and a secularist establishment that regards itself as European but seems determined to unseat the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) by fair means or foul.
However much they are covered with a figleaf of constitutional legitimacy, these efforts amount to a naked coup d’etat by forces unable to win power at the polls. If they come even close to success, Turkey really can forget about Europe.
It had looked as though this struggle was resolved. Turkey was last summer engulfed in a constitutional crisis after the army issued an elliptical ultimatum – on its website – saying Abdullah Gul, foreign minister, could not be trusted as president, and therefore guardian of the secular heritage of the republic created by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, because his wife wears the Muslim headscarf. Mr Erdogan called elections and hugely increased the AKP’s share of the vote to 47 per cent. Turks stood four-square with democracy as the generals tripped over their clumsy digital démarche – and Mr Gul is now their president.
Now the chief prosecutor has called on the constitutional court to upturn the political order, alleging the AKP is pursuing an anti-secular agenda. His case is without merit.
There is a strong whiff of class resentment about the establishment case that the AKP – the voice of the socially conservative, religiously observant, but dynamic and entrepreneurial middle classes of central Anatolia – is pursuing theocracy by stealth. The real case against the government is its lassitude in pursuing reform and EU accession – especially after Mr Gul’s elevation.
That is a shame. Triumphantly re-elected, and with new hope for a deal to resolve the Cyprus dispute, Mr Erdogan has a strong platform. But he is using it to swagger around the country giving populist speeches and to change the law to allow girls to wear headscarves at universities. There is an issue of equity here – if the Kemalist dress-code is denying women further education. But it is not more important than, for instance, repealing Article 301 of the penal code, under which writers are being prosecuted for the crime of insulting “Turkishness”.
Mr Erdogan should stop stalling and resume the constitutional revolution over which he has presided. – Financial Times
Turkey is in the throes of difficult membership negotiations with the European Union, much to the chagrin of the current governments in France and Germany. But its accession prospects are also clouded by the battle of wills between the neo-Islamist – and pro European – government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and a secularist establishment that regards itself as European but seems determined to unseat the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) by fair means or foul.
However much they are covered with a figleaf of constitutional legitimacy, these efforts amount to a naked coup d’etat by forces unable to win power at the polls. If they come even close to success, Turkey really can forget about Europe.
It had looked as though this struggle was resolved. Turkey was last summer engulfed in a constitutional crisis after the army issued an elliptical ultimatum – on its website – saying Abdullah Gul, foreign minister, could not be trusted as president, and therefore guardian of the secular heritage of the republic created by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, because his wife wears the Muslim headscarf. Mr Erdogan called elections and hugely increased the AKP’s share of the vote to 47 per cent. Turks stood four-square with democracy as the generals tripped over their clumsy digital démarche – and Mr Gul is now their president.
Now the chief prosecutor has called on the constitutional court to upturn the political order, alleging the AKP is pursuing an anti-secular agenda. His case is without merit.
There is a strong whiff of class resentment about the establishment case that the AKP – the voice of the socially conservative, religiously observant, but dynamic and entrepreneurial middle classes of central Anatolia – is pursuing theocracy by stealth. The real case against the government is its lassitude in pursuing reform and EU accession – especially after Mr Gul’s elevation.
That is a shame. Triumphantly re-elected, and with new hope for a deal to resolve the Cyprus dispute, Mr Erdogan has a strong platform. But he is using it to swagger around the country giving populist speeches and to change the law to allow girls to wear headscarves at universities. There is an issue of equity here – if the Kemalist dress-code is denying women further education. But it is not more important than, for instance, repealing Article 301 of the penal code, under which writers are being prosecuted for the crime of insulting “Turkishness”.
Mr Erdogan should stop stalling and resume the constitutional revolution over which he has presided. – Financial Times
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Changing China In Its People’s Name
CHINA’S National People’s Congress now under way is not a forum where anything reflecting the government’s drawbacks are debated, but it should increasingly serve as a time for soul searching for the government as times change and it becomes difficult to hold on to the strict one party control over everything inside the borders.
Beijing is no doubt not too far from becoming the centre of the world’s attention as China’s ascent to superpower status draws nearer every time it posts theory defying high growth, but certain mechanisms of the country’s ruling ethics are in crying need of transformation if the rise is to be facilitated, not retarded.
It goes without saying that
They way Chinese authorities attempt to control dissent or even mild difference of opinion is not fitting for a rising power like
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Costly Franco-German Chilliness
The European Union has not been shivering from the chilliness that has set into relations between two of its most powerful members. Yet the rifts between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have assumed greater seriousness in view of the ratification of the revised European constitution.
Over the weeks, Sarkozy has chastised the European Central Bank for not focusing on stimulating economic growth. His interventions prompted the German chancellor to publicly defend the bank’s independence.
Germany, for its part, was infuriated last year when Sarkozy postponed France’s commitment to balance its budget by 2010, and instead announced tax cuts worth 15 billion euros a year.
Sarkozy’s proposal for a union of Mediterranean countries, too, took Germany by surprise. Indeed Berlin was wary of a framework that would have operated outside the Barcelona process – the EU’s program for closer relations with non-member Mediterranean countries. In this particular case, Sarkozy subsequently agreed to revitalize the Barcelona process.
The EU, to be sure, is much more than a French-German enterprise. Yet it is hard to contemplate progress in the institution without Paris and Berlin being focused on the same page.
Admittedly, Sarkozy’s comfortable parliamentary majority offers him greater leeway in articulating his policy preferences. Merkel, on the other hand, leads a testy coalition that stymies ambitious initiatives. Yet much seems to be riding on Sarkozy’s personality. Sometimes he just seems unwilling to acknowledge the operating principles that have served the EU well. An important one, of course, is a strong French-German relationship.
Over the weeks, Sarkozy has chastised the European Central Bank for not focusing on stimulating economic growth. His interventions prompted the German chancellor to publicly defend the bank’s independence.
Germany, for its part, was infuriated last year when Sarkozy postponed France’s commitment to balance its budget by 2010, and instead announced tax cuts worth 15 billion euros a year.
Sarkozy’s proposal for a union of Mediterranean countries, too, took Germany by surprise. Indeed Berlin was wary of a framework that would have operated outside the Barcelona process – the EU’s program for closer relations with non-member Mediterranean countries. In this particular case, Sarkozy subsequently agreed to revitalize the Barcelona process.
The EU, to be sure, is much more than a French-German enterprise. Yet it is hard to contemplate progress in the institution without Paris and Berlin being focused on the same page.
Admittedly, Sarkozy’s comfortable parliamentary majority offers him greater leeway in articulating his policy preferences. Merkel, on the other hand, leads a testy coalition that stymies ambitious initiatives. Yet much seems to be riding on Sarkozy’s personality. Sometimes he just seems unwilling to acknowledge the operating principles that have served the EU well. An important one, of course, is a strong French-German relationship.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
British Apology Or Cop-out?
Does Britain’s apology over American “extraordinary rendition” flights through its territory imply London’s deepening shift from Washington’s approach to the war on terror?
Tony Blair’s departure as prime minister was precipitated by perceptions that he had become the Bush administration’s appendage. For Britons – and the rest of the world –Gordon Brown’s elevation to the premiership was expected to bring definite signs of a policy departure.
The latest shift – if that is what it is – is hardly credible. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s assertion that London did not really know what Washington was really up to is incredulous.
For Washington, the rendition operation was so crucial to the war on terror that it considered justified to fly detainees to places where American law would not apply, specifically vis-à-vis torture. There was an obvious imperative of secrecy on the part of an administration that perfected it to an art.
Yet it is preposterous to suggest that Washington did not seek London’s permission before embarking on such a sweeping move. From the outset, statements from Blair claiming “no evidence that rendition flights had stopped on UK territory” were considered misleading. He paid the price.
London seems intent on holding the Bush administration responsible for “lying.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown cannot expect to be left off the hook. He was a key member of the Blair cabinet. If he and/or other ministers counseled Blair against toeing Washington’s line so diligently, then he would do well to explain that in public.
If, on the other hand, he did not really know what was going on, then that would raise questions about his competence.
Tony Blair’s departure as prime minister was precipitated by perceptions that he had become the Bush administration’s appendage. For Britons – and the rest of the world –Gordon Brown’s elevation to the premiership was expected to bring definite signs of a policy departure.
The latest shift – if that is what it is – is hardly credible. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s assertion that London did not really know what Washington was really up to is incredulous.
For Washington, the rendition operation was so crucial to the war on terror that it considered justified to fly detainees to places where American law would not apply, specifically vis-à-vis torture. There was an obvious imperative of secrecy on the part of an administration that perfected it to an art.
Yet it is preposterous to suggest that Washington did not seek London’s permission before embarking on such a sweeping move. From the outset, statements from Blair claiming “no evidence that rendition flights had stopped on UK territory” were considered misleading. He paid the price.
London seems intent on holding the Bush administration responsible for “lying.” Prime Minister Gordon Brown cannot expect to be left off the hook. He was a key member of the Blair cabinet. If he and/or other ministers counseled Blair against toeing Washington’s line so diligently, then he would do well to explain that in public.
If, on the other hand, he did not really know what was going on, then that would raise questions about his competence.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Putin Ratchets Up Cold War Rhetoric
Days after claiming that a new phase of the arms race was unfolding, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his country may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbor joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and accepts the deployment of the US missile defense shield.
What was striking was that Putin made the comments in Moscow alongside Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko after talks to patch up bilateral differences.
Putin has regularly condemned American plans to include Poland and the Czech Republic in its missile defense shield. Still, his latest threat marks a dangerous escalation. He simply shrugged off Yushchenko’s pleas that Ukraine’s move was not aimed against Russia.
Speaking at a news conference at the Kremlin, Putin said he had advised Ukraine not to join NATO. However, he admitted that he would be unable to interfere in any such move.
Putin has come a long way since his famous bonhomie with George W. Bush. A man whom the newly elected American president said he could do business with in all sincerity has ostensibly been embittered by Washington.
Essentially, Washington wants to build the shield to destroy incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran. When Bush pulled his country out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the former Soviet Union to facilitate the construction of the shield, Putin went along.
The missile shield project has evolved over the years. Current plans envisage some interceptor missiles based in Poland and an associated radar built in the Czech Republic, both former Soviet satellite countries. Ukraine’s moves toward NATO have ostensibly raised Moscow’s sensitivities.
The sight of Putin and Yushchenko together was, at one level, quite remarkable. Moscow had campaigned heavily against Yushchenko during the presidential elections over three years ago. Putin’s overt support for Viktor Yanukovych did much to fuel the Orange Revolution of winter 2004-2005. Once the euphoria over the triumph of people power subsided, Moscow’s candidate Yanukovych trudged back to power.
Still, several sensitive issues continue to dog the bilateral partnership between Russia and its second largest partner in what used to be the Soviet Union. Yushchenko hopes to resolve outstanding issues with Russia with through dialogue, openness and trust. The two leaders had been meeting in urgent talks over one such issue, a gas dispute. In fact, they announced a deal to avoid disrupting supplies.
The missile threat has revived fears of another escalation in international tensions. In a televised speech to the Russian State Council last week, Putin said other countries were spending far more than Russia on new weapons. The content and tone was eerily reminiscent of the Cold War. Putin’s assertion that Russia would respond to the challenges by developing high-tech weaponry has only deepened growing anxieties. Russia and China, for their part, have proposed a new treaty to ban the use of weapons in space and the use or threat of force against satellites or other craft.
Putin has accepted an invitation to attend the forthcoming NATO summit in the Romanian capital, Bucharest, in April. That is strange considering that Putin will cease to be president then. Elections to choose his successor are scheduled for next month. Does this amount to an acceptance by the Atlantic alliance that Putin will continue to call the shots?
What was striking was that Putin made the comments in Moscow alongside Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko after talks to patch up bilateral differences.
Putin has regularly condemned American plans to include Poland and the Czech Republic in its missile defense shield. Still, his latest threat marks a dangerous escalation. He simply shrugged off Yushchenko’s pleas that Ukraine’s move was not aimed against Russia.
Speaking at a news conference at the Kremlin, Putin said he had advised Ukraine not to join NATO. However, he admitted that he would be unable to interfere in any such move.
Putin has come a long way since his famous bonhomie with George W. Bush. A man whom the newly elected American president said he could do business with in all sincerity has ostensibly been embittered by Washington.
Essentially, Washington wants to build the shield to destroy incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran. When Bush pulled his country out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with the former Soviet Union to facilitate the construction of the shield, Putin went along.
The missile shield project has evolved over the years. Current plans envisage some interceptor missiles based in Poland and an associated radar built in the Czech Republic, both former Soviet satellite countries. Ukraine’s moves toward NATO have ostensibly raised Moscow’s sensitivities.
The sight of Putin and Yushchenko together was, at one level, quite remarkable. Moscow had campaigned heavily against Yushchenko during the presidential elections over three years ago. Putin’s overt support for Viktor Yanukovych did much to fuel the Orange Revolution of winter 2004-2005. Once the euphoria over the triumph of people power subsided, Moscow’s candidate Yanukovych trudged back to power.
Still, several sensitive issues continue to dog the bilateral partnership between Russia and its second largest partner in what used to be the Soviet Union. Yushchenko hopes to resolve outstanding issues with Russia with through dialogue, openness and trust. The two leaders had been meeting in urgent talks over one such issue, a gas dispute. In fact, they announced a deal to avoid disrupting supplies.
The missile threat has revived fears of another escalation in international tensions. In a televised speech to the Russian State Council last week, Putin said other countries were spending far more than Russia on new weapons. The content and tone was eerily reminiscent of the Cold War. Putin’s assertion that Russia would respond to the challenges by developing high-tech weaponry has only deepened growing anxieties. Russia and China, for their part, have proposed a new treaty to ban the use of weapons in space and the use or threat of force against satellites or other craft.
Putin has accepted an invitation to attend the forthcoming NATO summit in the Romanian capital, Bucharest, in April. That is strange considering that Putin will cease to be president then. Elections to choose his successor are scheduled for next month. Does this amount to an acceptance by the Atlantic alliance that Putin will continue to call the shots?
Monday, February 11, 2008
Tanzania’s Tough War On Graft
Is Tanzania stepping up its fight against corruption? Or is President Jakaya Kikwete losing control over the ruling party?
Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and two members of his cabinet resigned last week after parliament issued a report criticizing their role in the “Richmond affair.” This is the second high-profile anti-corruption scandal to hit the country in two months.
Amid a drought-induced severe decline in hydroelectric power generation in 2006, the government awarded US-based Richmond Development Company a contract to supply 100 megawatts of emergency power.
The $172 million deal sparked a controversy, with concerns swirling around alleged violations of official tendering procedures and the failure to insist on a performance bond.
A parliamentary committee was set up in November 2007 to investigate the contract. It, too, criticized the arrangement. The panel said Richmond, which failed to deliver the 100 MW of power, lacked experience, expertise, and was financially incapacitated.
The committee criticized the role of senior government officials, including Prime Minister Lowassa. He denies wrongdoing, claiming the committee has misled parliament.
The parliamentary report and resignations comes at a time when President Kikwete is attempting to burnish his government’s reputation on the anti-corruption front. Donors, who fund up to 40 percent of Tanzania’s budget, have become more critical over the misuse of aid in the past year.
Pressing for political accountability, they are paying close attention to the Richmond case. Moreover, Tanzania is one of the main recipients of rising aid flows to Africa.
In December, the president dismissed the central bank governor, Daudi Ballali, after an investigation uncovered fraud in the repayment of external debts.
The latest resignations will bolster Kikwete’s argument that he is committed to tackling graft. But at what price? The loss of the three ministers – known as close associates of the president – could represent a waning of Kikwete’s position in the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.
A recent contest for positions in the CCM secretariat exposed deep fissures in the ruling party. Some of President Kikwete’s important allies lost their positions.
A scheduled cabinet reshuffle can be expected to provide further evidence of the balance of power within the CCM – as well as the fate of the anti-corruption campaign.
Prime Minister Edward Lowassa and two members of his cabinet resigned last week after parliament issued a report criticizing their role in the “Richmond affair.” This is the second high-profile anti-corruption scandal to hit the country in two months.
Amid a drought-induced severe decline in hydroelectric power generation in 2006, the government awarded US-based Richmond Development Company a contract to supply 100 megawatts of emergency power.
The $172 million deal sparked a controversy, with concerns swirling around alleged violations of official tendering procedures and the failure to insist on a performance bond.
A parliamentary committee was set up in November 2007 to investigate the contract. It, too, criticized the arrangement. The panel said Richmond, which failed to deliver the 100 MW of power, lacked experience, expertise, and was financially incapacitated.
The committee criticized the role of senior government officials, including Prime Minister Lowassa. He denies wrongdoing, claiming the committee has misled parliament.
The parliamentary report and resignations comes at a time when President Kikwete is attempting to burnish his government’s reputation on the anti-corruption front. Donors, who fund up to 40 percent of Tanzania’s budget, have become more critical over the misuse of aid in the past year.
Pressing for political accountability, they are paying close attention to the Richmond case. Moreover, Tanzania is one of the main recipients of rising aid flows to Africa.
In December, the president dismissed the central bank governor, Daudi Ballali, after an investigation uncovered fraud in the repayment of external debts.
The latest resignations will bolster Kikwete’s argument that he is committed to tackling graft. But at what price? The loss of the three ministers – known as close associates of the president – could represent a waning of Kikwete’s position in the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.
A recent contest for positions in the CCM secretariat exposed deep fissures in the ruling party. Some of President Kikwete’s important allies lost their positions.
A scheduled cabinet reshuffle can be expected to provide further evidence of the balance of power within the CCM – as well as the fate of the anti-corruption campaign.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
What Would Reagan Have Done Without Carter?
Is John McCain’s win in Florida tantamount to the defeat of conservatism?
The two men who led the charge against the Arizona senator sound flustered.
Rush Limbaugh offered a non-concession speech, effectively rubbishing the idea that his flock abandoned him in droves. (McCain’s invocation of Ronald Reagan suggests the senator has in fact come to the Maha Rushie.)
Sean Hannity conceded that McCain may have been Reaganism’s torch-bearer all along. Their sarcasm couldn’t conceal their inability to grasp the moment.
Among social, fiscal and national security conservatives, McCain probably drew support rather preponderantly from the last. Even there, the “Senator Amnesty” tag must have siphoned away some votes. Don’t waste time doing the math.
If McCain is unstoppable, so be it. Let the liberal media promote McCain until he becomes the Republican nominee they would love to destroy in November.
A McCain defeat would serve the conservatives in two ways. Reagan needed Jimmy Carter. Without the national malaise of the late 1970s, Reaganism wouldn’t have acquired the moral resilience to confront and overcome the challenges it did.
Secondly, a McCain defeat would teach Republicans to proffer the genuine article the next time.
Should McCain defeat his Democratic rival, well, he could at least have a chance to prove the conservative credentials he now seems to be so religiously invoking.
The two men who led the charge against the Arizona senator sound flustered.
Rush Limbaugh offered a non-concession speech, effectively rubbishing the idea that his flock abandoned him in droves. (McCain’s invocation of Ronald Reagan suggests the senator has in fact come to the Maha Rushie.)
Sean Hannity conceded that McCain may have been Reaganism’s torch-bearer all along. Their sarcasm couldn’t conceal their inability to grasp the moment.
Among social, fiscal and national security conservatives, McCain probably drew support rather preponderantly from the last. Even there, the “Senator Amnesty” tag must have siphoned away some votes. Don’t waste time doing the math.
If McCain is unstoppable, so be it. Let the liberal media promote McCain until he becomes the Republican nominee they would love to destroy in November.
A McCain defeat would serve the conservatives in two ways. Reagan needed Jimmy Carter. Without the national malaise of the late 1970s, Reaganism wouldn’t have acquired the moral resilience to confront and overcome the challenges it did.
Secondly, a McCain defeat would teach Republicans to proffer the genuine article the next time.
Should McCain defeat his Democratic rival, well, he could at least have a chance to prove the conservative credentials he now seems to be so religiously invoking.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The Future Will Be Kinder To Suharto
For most people, former Indonesian president Suharto will be remembered for his regime’s hugely autocratic rule and large-scale corruption. But many others cannot avoid recalling him as someone who brought stability to an ethnically fractured nation and then fired it off on a trajectory of economic progress.
The man must be measured in accordance with his times. In October 1965, Gen. Suharto led the army against an abortive communist coup. Some 500,000 communist sympathizers were reportedly killed in the subsequent mopping-up operations.
The following year he took control from the nation’s founder, Sukarno, becoming president in March 1968. The policy implications were striking. Gen. Suharto revoked Sukarno’s anti-American policy and switched to an anticommunist posture that found favor in Washington.
Suharto’s free-market policies pushed Indonesia’s industrialization and the country became a principal member of Southeast Asia. He also ordered his army to invade East Timor, although the full story of how that event fit into the wider Cold War geopolitics remains to emerge.
Under his regime, many anti-government activists were killed. Countless opposition politicians disappeared. It’s hard to believe Suharto ever considered his regime democratic. The man must be judged from that standpoint. And in an important way, he was.
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 put the Indonesian economy on the brink of collapse. Once prosperity seemed to vanish, public anxiety morphed into a pro-democracy movement. After Suharto stepped down, Indonesia held democratic elections to the legislature and the presidency. It is a democracy in the full conventional sense of the term.
How about the kleptomania? Last year, the World Bank reported that Suharto’s government had stolen up to $35 billion from state coffers. Suharto consistently denied involvement in corruption and a court declared him too ill to stand a corruption trial in 2000. While he was never officially charged with stealing state funds, Suharto could never clear his name either.
Corruption and gross human rights violations will remain an inextricable part of Suharto’s legacy. Future historians would certainly be kinder while appraising his wider record.
The man must be measured in accordance with his times. In October 1965, Gen. Suharto led the army against an abortive communist coup. Some 500,000 communist sympathizers were reportedly killed in the subsequent mopping-up operations.
The following year he took control from the nation’s founder, Sukarno, becoming president in March 1968. The policy implications were striking. Gen. Suharto revoked Sukarno’s anti-American policy and switched to an anticommunist posture that found favor in Washington.
Suharto’s free-market policies pushed Indonesia’s industrialization and the country became a principal member of Southeast Asia. He also ordered his army to invade East Timor, although the full story of how that event fit into the wider Cold War geopolitics remains to emerge.
Under his regime, many anti-government activists were killed. Countless opposition politicians disappeared. It’s hard to believe Suharto ever considered his regime democratic. The man must be judged from that standpoint. And in an important way, he was.
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 put the Indonesian economy on the brink of collapse. Once prosperity seemed to vanish, public anxiety morphed into a pro-democracy movement. After Suharto stepped down, Indonesia held democratic elections to the legislature and the presidency. It is a democracy in the full conventional sense of the term.
How about the kleptomania? Last year, the World Bank reported that Suharto’s government had stolen up to $35 billion from state coffers. Suharto consistently denied involvement in corruption and a court declared him too ill to stand a corruption trial in 2000. While he was never officially charged with stealing state funds, Suharto could never clear his name either.
Corruption and gross human rights violations will remain an inextricable part of Suharto’s legacy. Future historians would certainly be kinder while appraising his wider record.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
It Needs More Than The Fed
US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke zeroed in on the volatility of the global market. By slashing its key interest rate, the Fed helped to calm international markets. The purpose of easing liquidity is to head off panic and a global capital crunch.
The markets demand much more. Investors want transparency in financial institutions so that the system can find its own level.
Skepticism of the independence of market forces has not receded in the aftermath of the Enron, WorldCom and all the other scandals left in their wake. The inflation of the US real estate markets was originally played down as limited. The way experts and analysts kept the subject alive suggested a dangerous nationwide spread.
The subprime mortgages held throughout international financial markets thus became intrinsically combustible. They are estimated to have lost more than $6 trillion in value this month alone.
US consumers, who have long used rising real estate values to finance their spending, have had a nasty shock. That is bad news for the world. The US remains the market of final demand for much of the world’s production. The bipartisanship exhibited in crafting a stimulus package is laudable.
The Fed’s intervention must be seen for what it is: an initiative to restore confidence and provide a baseline to the markets. With enough spur, the economy may be able to stem its hemorrhage.
Much more will depend on how far financial institutions – banks, investment houses and bond insurers – go in playing their part. They must come clean on the scale of their losses and become aggressive in cleaning up their books. The long-term perils of avoiding transparency today are too high.
The markets demand much more. Investors want transparency in financial institutions so that the system can find its own level.
Skepticism of the independence of market forces has not receded in the aftermath of the Enron, WorldCom and all the other scandals left in their wake. The inflation of the US real estate markets was originally played down as limited. The way experts and analysts kept the subject alive suggested a dangerous nationwide spread.
The subprime mortgages held throughout international financial markets thus became intrinsically combustible. They are estimated to have lost more than $6 trillion in value this month alone.
US consumers, who have long used rising real estate values to finance their spending, have had a nasty shock. That is bad news for the world. The US remains the market of final demand for much of the world’s production. The bipartisanship exhibited in crafting a stimulus package is laudable.
The Fed’s intervention must be seen for what it is: an initiative to restore confidence and provide a baseline to the markets. With enough spur, the economy may be able to stem its hemorrhage.
Much more will depend on how far financial institutions – banks, investment houses and bond insurers – go in playing their part. They must come clean on the scale of their losses and become aggressive in cleaning up their books. The long-term perils of avoiding transparency today are too high.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
The Cuban Enigma Deepens
We have it on the good authority of Brazil’s leftist president that Cuban leader Fidel Castro is healthy enough to return to politics. A day after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made that revelation, following a two-hour meeting with Castro, the grand old man himself spoke. Er… make that wrote.
In an essay published by Cuban state media Wednesday, the 81-year-old ailing leader said he is not yet healthy enough to speak to Cuba’s masses in person. Therefore, he can’t campaign for Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
There is a nagging question here. Why the discrepancy? Although a Castro confidant, da Silva is nowhere near his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez when it come to breathing the kind of fire the Cuban leader is known for. Does this explain the urgency on the part of Castro to contradict da Silva.
Admittedly, there may be a benign explanation here. Castro’s essay was probably in the final stages of publication when the Brazilian president spoke. Moreover, da Silva probably implied a future far beyond the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Castro, moreover, may have sounded lucid and fit in a one-on-one setting. The Brazilian visitor was in no position to speak on extrapolating Castro’s abilities to a public setting.
Castro has not been seen in public for a year and a half. Emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006 forced him to cede power to a government headed by his younger brother Raul. Ordinarily, this should have been a perfect time for Castro to retire. Raul, five years his junior, wouldn’t have raised too many eyebrows by officially succeeding his brother.
Evidently, the succession doesn’t seem to have been completed. Has it even started? Why? Do other influential elements in Cuba’s communist hierarchy view Raul as an unworthy successor? Is there a power struggle going on which Castro feels he has to camouflage by his incessant allusions to returning to work?
In an essay published by Cuban state media Wednesday, the 81-year-old ailing leader said he is not yet healthy enough to speak to Cuba’s masses in person. Therefore, he can’t campaign for Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
There is a nagging question here. Why the discrepancy? Although a Castro confidant, da Silva is nowhere near his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez when it come to breathing the kind of fire the Cuban leader is known for. Does this explain the urgency on the part of Castro to contradict da Silva.
Admittedly, there may be a benign explanation here. Castro’s essay was probably in the final stages of publication when the Brazilian president spoke. Moreover, da Silva probably implied a future far beyond the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Castro, moreover, may have sounded lucid and fit in a one-on-one setting. The Brazilian visitor was in no position to speak on extrapolating Castro’s abilities to a public setting.
Castro has not been seen in public for a year and a half. Emergency intestinal surgery in July 2006 forced him to cede power to a government headed by his younger brother Raul. Ordinarily, this should have been a perfect time for Castro to retire. Raul, five years his junior, wouldn’t have raised too many eyebrows by officially succeeding his brother.
Evidently, the succession doesn’t seem to have been completed. Has it even started? Why? Do other influential elements in Cuba’s communist hierarchy view Raul as an unworthy successor? Is there a power struggle going on which Castro feels he has to camouflage by his incessant allusions to returning to work?
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Sri Lanka’s Larger Tragedy
A resumption of fighting between Sri Lankan government forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels since the beginning of the new year has claimed over a hundred lives. Most of those killed are Tamil insurgents, according to government officials in Colombo. There is little doubt that innocent civilians on both sides of Sinhala-Tamil divide are paying a heavy price.
The ceasefire the Norwegians had brokered in 2002 raised much hope in the country and the wider South Asian region. The Sri Lankan conflict was one of the most brutal in the region, driven by the fault lines of geography, ethnicity and religion.
A quarter century of relentless fighting claimed some 70,000 lives. Hundreds of thousands lose their homes and livelihoods. Those fortunate enough to have a home lack essential infrastructure such as clean water, electricity, and roads.
The human rights situation across the island nation has worsened. Unlawful killings by government agents and unknown perpetrators continue. Paramilitary forces with ties to the government as well as the rebels continue politically motivated killings. The Tamil Tigers carry out political murders and suicide attacks and subject Sri Lankan citizens to such abuses as torture and the forcible recruitment of child soldiers. This has hardened sentiments on both sides. These realities do not always make international headlines because the narrative does not lend itself to an easy nut graph.
The truce was all but dead a couple of years ago, as both sides traded accusations and questioned the neutrality of the Norwegians. Thousands, mostly civilians, continued to die as the fiction of the peace process persisted.
Frustrated, the Sri Lankan government announced earlier this month that it was pulling out of the ceasefire. In such a scenario, it would be futile to single out to blame one party. All parties to the conflict have the onus of protecting the rights of all of Sri Lanka’s people. They must work toward the goal of a just political solution that ensures the rights of minority communities and benefits all Sri Lankans.
But they must be allowed to determine their future without outside interference. Decades of unwarranted interference from India has nudged influential sections in Colombo closer to China. With regional heavyweights vying for influence, the conflict is likely to grow worse in the near term.
The ceasefire the Norwegians had brokered in 2002 raised much hope in the country and the wider South Asian region. The Sri Lankan conflict was one of the most brutal in the region, driven by the fault lines of geography, ethnicity and religion.
A quarter century of relentless fighting claimed some 70,000 lives. Hundreds of thousands lose their homes and livelihoods. Those fortunate enough to have a home lack essential infrastructure such as clean water, electricity, and roads.
The human rights situation across the island nation has worsened. Unlawful killings by government agents and unknown perpetrators continue. Paramilitary forces with ties to the government as well as the rebels continue politically motivated killings. The Tamil Tigers carry out political murders and suicide attacks and subject Sri Lankan citizens to such abuses as torture and the forcible recruitment of child soldiers. This has hardened sentiments on both sides. These realities do not always make international headlines because the narrative does not lend itself to an easy nut graph.
The truce was all but dead a couple of years ago, as both sides traded accusations and questioned the neutrality of the Norwegians. Thousands, mostly civilians, continued to die as the fiction of the peace process persisted.
Frustrated, the Sri Lankan government announced earlier this month that it was pulling out of the ceasefire. In such a scenario, it would be futile to single out to blame one party. All parties to the conflict have the onus of protecting the rights of all of Sri Lanka’s people. They must work toward the goal of a just political solution that ensures the rights of minority communities and benefits all Sri Lankans.
But they must be allowed to determine their future without outside interference. Decades of unwarranted interference from India has nudged influential sections in Colombo closer to China. With regional heavyweights vying for influence, the conflict is likely to grow worse in the near term.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
A Victory That Could Haunt Hucksters
Mike Huckabee’s victory in Iowa’s Republican caucus may end up disappointing all those supporters who have been robotically comparing the candidate with Ronald Reagan.
Huckabee’s success can be largely attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women. Evangelicals constituted the majority of Republican caucus goers, some 60 percent. CNN’s entrance polling showed Huckabee won 45 percent of that group. Mitt Romney, who has feverishly wooed social conservatives, only drew 19 percent of those voters.
Huckabee also seems to have overwhelmingly won the female vote. He picked up close to 45 percent of women, to only 23 percent for Romney, according to CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.
Coupled with the surge of that other “non-conservative” John McCain’s in New Hampshire, Huckabee’s win will keep pundits on the right busy dis-equating the ideology with Republicanism.
Rush Limbaugh grappled with several calls Thursday afternoon from Huckabee enthusiasts who compared the former Arkansas governor to The Gipper. Reagan, too, had raised taxes as governor of California and signed off on amnesty for illegal aliens as president, they claimed.
After the first call, Limbaugh struggled to maintain his composure. In the process, he launched into a brilliant tour de horizon of Reagan’s conservative credentials as both a thinker and practitioner. (Reagan’s 1964 exposition on the conservative movement remains one of most brilliant tracts.)
If anything, Huckabee’s record, Limbaugh concluded, made him another version of Slick Willie. Like Bill Clinton, Huckabee is making himself malleable enough to everyone just to be elected.
The Reagan comparison is where Hucksters, no doubt egged on by their man’s campaign, have gone terribly wrong – and may live to regret.
Huckabee’s success can be largely attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women. Evangelicals constituted the majority of Republican caucus goers, some 60 percent. CNN’s entrance polling showed Huckabee won 45 percent of that group. Mitt Romney, who has feverishly wooed social conservatives, only drew 19 percent of those voters.
Huckabee also seems to have overwhelmingly won the female vote. He picked up close to 45 percent of women, to only 23 percent for Romney, according to CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.
Coupled with the surge of that other “non-conservative” John McCain’s in New Hampshire, Huckabee’s win will keep pundits on the right busy dis-equating the ideology with Republicanism.
Rush Limbaugh grappled with several calls Thursday afternoon from Huckabee enthusiasts who compared the former Arkansas governor to The Gipper. Reagan, too, had raised taxes as governor of California and signed off on amnesty for illegal aliens as president, they claimed.
After the first call, Limbaugh struggled to maintain his composure. In the process, he launched into a brilliant tour de horizon of Reagan’s conservative credentials as both a thinker and practitioner. (Reagan’s 1964 exposition on the conservative movement remains one of most brilliant tracts.)
If anything, Huckabee’s record, Limbaugh concluded, made him another version of Slick Willie. Like Bill Clinton, Huckabee is making himself malleable enough to everyone just to be elected.
The Reagan comparison is where Hucksters, no doubt egged on by their man’s campaign, have gone terribly wrong – and may live to regret.
CIA And Cover-up: Big Deal!
After weeks of Democratic hollering, Attorney General Michael Mukasey announced Wednesday that the Justice Department is opening a criminal investigation into the destruction of CIA videotapes of the interrogations of terrorist suspects. Federal prosecutor John Durham is to conduct the investigation, which promises to surface prominently as the presidential election campaign progresses.
CIA director General Michael Hayden touched off a maelstrom last month by acknowledging that some videotapes of Al Qaida suspect interrogations, made in 2002, had been destroyed three years later. The purpose, according to Hayden, was to protect the identities of the prosecutors. As someone sent in by President Bush to fix the much-maligned agency, Hayden must have espoused candor as a cleanser.
Critics of that move – mostly political partisans – accuse the CIA of destroying evidence of torture – a line certain to resonate in the national debate. Thomas Keane and Lee Hamilton, who jointly headed the commission that investigated the September 11, 2001 attacks, jumped onto the debate.
In an op-ed published in the New York Times this week, they said CIA officials unlawfully obstructed their investigation by failing to notify them that the videotapes existed. No complaints there. But something still doesn’t sound right. Isn’t it the CIA’s job to cover its tracks as much as it is to mount covert operations?
CIA director General Michael Hayden touched off a maelstrom last month by acknowledging that some videotapes of Al Qaida suspect interrogations, made in 2002, had been destroyed three years later. The purpose, according to Hayden, was to protect the identities of the prosecutors. As someone sent in by President Bush to fix the much-maligned agency, Hayden must have espoused candor as a cleanser.
Critics of that move – mostly political partisans – accuse the CIA of destroying evidence of torture – a line certain to resonate in the national debate. Thomas Keane and Lee Hamilton, who jointly headed the commission that investigated the September 11, 2001 attacks, jumped onto the debate.
In an op-ed published in the New York Times this week, they said CIA officials unlawfully obstructed their investigation by failing to notify them that the videotapes existed. No complaints there. But something still doesn’t sound right. Isn’t it the CIA’s job to cover its tracks as much as it is to mount covert operations?
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Cameron Diaz 'Sorry' For Maoist Slip
FOR many Hollywood celebrities, political causes have always been akin to badges of honour. Some like Cameron Diaz have been quite prescient in carving out positions. The actress became a vocal critic of George W. Bush long before he was elected president in 2000 and embarked on a course that alienated much of America and the world.
During a recent trip through Peru, however, Diaz discovered the perils of desecrating — even unintentionally — the past. While visiting the historical Machu Picchu site, the star happened to carry along a bag she had purchased in China that featured a political slogan deemed offensive by local people.The green bag with a red star and the words “serve the people” printed in Chinese brought back memories of Peru’s war against the Shining Path Maoist rebels in the 1980s and 90s, which claimed up to 69,000 lives. Diaz apologised, saying she did not realise the slogan’s “potentially hurtful nature”.
In its heyday, the Shining Path was the most formidable rebel movement in Latin America. It controlled large areas of the countryside and also mounted attacks on the capital, Lima. This prompted fears at home and abroad of a full rebel takeover.
The violence began to wane after Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman was captured in 1992. After he called for a ceasefire, the organisation saw it membership plummet. By 1994, about 6,000 guerrillas had surrendered under a state amnesty programme.
Another guerrilla leader subsequently tried to revive the movement, but few adherents were energised. Following another government crackdown in 2004, the Shining Path lost the power to undermine the Peruvian state. The scars of the conflict endure in several ways.
How far Diaz’s apology for an ostensibly honest mistake goes towards assuaging Peruvians is something those most offended can best judge. For the rest of us, the episode underscores the care celebrities – even those with profoundly outspoken views – must take to respect the political sensitivities of others.
During a recent trip through Peru, however, Diaz discovered the perils of desecrating — even unintentionally — the past. While visiting the historical Machu Picchu site, the star happened to carry along a bag she had purchased in China that featured a political slogan deemed offensive by local people.The green bag with a red star and the words “serve the people” printed in Chinese brought back memories of Peru’s war against the Shining Path Maoist rebels in the 1980s and 90s, which claimed up to 69,000 lives. Diaz apologised, saying she did not realise the slogan’s “potentially hurtful nature”.
In its heyday, the Shining Path was the most formidable rebel movement in Latin America. It controlled large areas of the countryside and also mounted attacks on the capital, Lima. This prompted fears at home and abroad of a full rebel takeover.
The violence began to wane after Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman was captured in 1992. After he called for a ceasefire, the organisation saw it membership plummet. By 1994, about 6,000 guerrillas had surrendered under a state amnesty programme.
Another guerrilla leader subsequently tried to revive the movement, but few adherents were energised. Following another government crackdown in 2004, the Shining Path lost the power to undermine the Peruvian state. The scars of the conflict endure in several ways.
How far Diaz’s apology for an ostensibly honest mistake goes towards assuaging Peruvians is something those most offended can best judge. For the rest of us, the episode underscores the care celebrities – even those with profoundly outspoken views – must take to respect the political sensitivities of others.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Bracing For Green Refugees
Need one more reason not to let the planet heat up any further? How about an influx of green refugees? The year so far has proved to be one of the most seminal in galvanising the climate change debate. United Nations experts came out with a report reinforcing the body of evidence holding humans complicit in causing global warming. This has inspired an energetic enquiry in what people could do to mitigate the effects of their actions.
From the high Himalayas to the deep seas, the specific impacts of rising temperatures have been explored. In traditionally sceptical parts of the world, public opinion has shifted dramatically and put greater pressure on governments to act. The growing intensity of the deliberations has prompted some advocates to warn of the negative fallout.
In recent weeks, the discussions are increasingly focusing on the extent of the displacement of people and entire communities climate change would precipitate within and across national boundaries. The growth of different categories of refugees has already overwhelmed the international system. This preoccupation has sometimes kept attention away from the plight of internally displaced people. Climate change – along with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, droughts and famines – threatens to compound this challenge several fold.
Experts predict that about 50 million people worldwide would be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes. Up to a billion people could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years, other studies warn. The farther the projections go into the future, the more serious the crisis seems to become.
Rising sea levels are expected to leave the most dramatic and visible effects. Yet communities living in coastal areas in least developed countries and small island developing states remain the most vulnerable. Lack of empowerment, representation and knowledge, among other things, has severely limited their access to support systems.
Environmental refugees, like victims of political upheavals or violence, require international commitments ensuring access to financial grants, food, tools, shelter, schools and clinics. Yet such refugees are not yet recognised in international conventions.
The world needs to move urgently on multiple fronts beginning with a legal definition of environmental refugees. Apart from mobilising financial, technical and material resources, governments, organisations and individuals need to raise awareness among the potential refugees. At least those who don't want to leave home would have enough to act on.
From the high Himalayas to the deep seas, the specific impacts of rising temperatures have been explored. In traditionally sceptical parts of the world, public opinion has shifted dramatically and put greater pressure on governments to act. The growing intensity of the deliberations has prompted some advocates to warn of the negative fallout.
In recent weeks, the discussions are increasingly focusing on the extent of the displacement of people and entire communities climate change would precipitate within and across national boundaries. The growth of different categories of refugees has already overwhelmed the international system. This preoccupation has sometimes kept attention away from the plight of internally displaced people. Climate change – along with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, droughts and famines – threatens to compound this challenge several fold.
Experts predict that about 50 million people worldwide would be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes. Up to a billion people could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years, other studies warn. The farther the projections go into the future, the more serious the crisis seems to become.
Rising sea levels are expected to leave the most dramatic and visible effects. Yet communities living in coastal areas in least developed countries and small island developing states remain the most vulnerable. Lack of empowerment, representation and knowledge, among other things, has severely limited their access to support systems.
Environmental refugees, like victims of political upheavals or violence, require international commitments ensuring access to financial grants, food, tools, shelter, schools and clinics. Yet such refugees are not yet recognised in international conventions.
The world needs to move urgently on multiple fronts beginning with a legal definition of environmental refugees. Apart from mobilising financial, technical and material resources, governments, organisations and individuals need to raise awareness among the potential refugees. At least those who don't want to leave home would have enough to act on.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
No Small Achievement, Surely
SMALL and getting bountiful. The possibility of manipulating materials at an incredibly small scale to improve almost every aspect of life continues to mesmerize experts and entrepreneurs alike. Global spending on nano-technology research is currently estimated to be $12 billion. By 2014, this industry could be worth $2.5 trillion, offering tools for improving health care, food production, electronics, energy output, transportation, and a variety of everyday needs.
At a basic level, nano-materials exploit unusual electrical, optical, and other properties because of the very precise way in which their atoms are arranged. The true extent of their application essentially remains unknown. This reality, aided by the creativity of science fiction writers, has spawned scary scenarios ranging from swarms of self-replicating robots devouring the planet to nano-sized biological particles moving into human bodies and wreaking havoc.
Dismissing such scare-mongering, most experts foresee remarkable advances in medicine. Nano-technology is expected to provide earlier and better diagnostics, while treatment would combine earlier and more precisely targeted drug delivery. Furthermore, the miniaturization of medical diagnostic and sensing tools could drive down costs of such kits for developing countries. Behind this rosy prognosis, however, governments are coming under increasing fire for failing to fund adequate research into the potential risks. A recent review conducted by Britain’s Council for Science and Technology found that not enough had been done to understand the possible environmental and health effects of nano-technology, especially in view of the growing number of products on the market containing these manufactured ultra-small materials.
Admittedly, the commercial viability of nano-technology, like any other novel venture, rests on its ability to maximize benefits as well as minimize risks. Focused research, bolstered by sustained funding, would provide manufacturers with sufficient knowledge to build safe products. Consumers, on the other hand, would be confident enough to espouse products and processes with such immense promise.
At a basic level, nano-materials exploit unusual electrical, optical, and other properties because of the very precise way in which their atoms are arranged. The true extent of their application essentially remains unknown. This reality, aided by the creativity of science fiction writers, has spawned scary scenarios ranging from swarms of self-replicating robots devouring the planet to nano-sized biological particles moving into human bodies and wreaking havoc.
Dismissing such scare-mongering, most experts foresee remarkable advances in medicine. Nano-technology is expected to provide earlier and better diagnostics, while treatment would combine earlier and more precisely targeted drug delivery. Furthermore, the miniaturization of medical diagnostic and sensing tools could drive down costs of such kits for developing countries. Behind this rosy prognosis, however, governments are coming under increasing fire for failing to fund adequate research into the potential risks. A recent review conducted by Britain’s Council for Science and Technology found that not enough had been done to understand the possible environmental and health effects of nano-technology, especially in view of the growing number of products on the market containing these manufactured ultra-small materials.
Admittedly, the commercial viability of nano-technology, like any other novel venture, rests on its ability to maximize benefits as well as minimize risks. Focused research, bolstered by sustained funding, would provide manufacturers with sufficient knowledge to build safe products. Consumers, on the other hand, would be confident enough to espouse products and processes with such immense promise.
Friday, April 27, 2007
The Graying Of The World
THE latest projections on international population patterns make a compelling case for concerted action to meet the challenges posed by ageing in developed as well as developing nations. By 2005, according to a recent United Nations report, the planet's population is expected to cross the nine billion mark from the current 6.7 billion.
That the bulk of the 2.5 billion increase would take place in the developing world is hardly news. What is new is the urgency the United Nations attaches to the graying of the developing world and to appropriate and timely policy interventions.
A rise in the number of men and women aged 60 years or over is expected to comprise half of the world's population growth by 2050. In developed countries, where fertility has been declining amid improved life expectancy, 20 per cent of the population is already over 60. The proportion is projected to rise to 33 per cent by 2050. In several of these countries, senior citizens already outnumber children.
The perceptible shift in demographic patterns has led governments to review economic and social policies that have worked well for decades. Health care, pensions, and social services that traditionally depended on tax contributions of a younger work force are no longer considered so viable. Many countries are introducing family friendly policies to make careers and parenthood more compatible. Others are exploring the politically charged option of inviting temporary or seasonal skilled and unskilled workers.
The onset of ageing is comparatively slow in developing countries, where eight per cent of the population is 60 years or older. The United Nations estimates that the number of children in the developing world - currently about two billion - would remain intact until the middle of the century. Much of the focus of governments thus continues to fall on education, health care, and social services for the young.
By 2050, in terms of aging, Asian, Latin American and Caribbean nations would be in the position Europe and North America are today. The challenge for governments in the developing world to come up with the requisite vision and commitment therefore becomes doubly daunting.
That the bulk of the 2.5 billion increase would take place in the developing world is hardly news. What is new is the urgency the United Nations attaches to the graying of the developing world and to appropriate and timely policy interventions.
A rise in the number of men and women aged 60 years or over is expected to comprise half of the world's population growth by 2050. In developed countries, where fertility has been declining amid improved life expectancy, 20 per cent of the population is already over 60. The proportion is projected to rise to 33 per cent by 2050. In several of these countries, senior citizens already outnumber children.
The perceptible shift in demographic patterns has led governments to review economic and social policies that have worked well for decades. Health care, pensions, and social services that traditionally depended on tax contributions of a younger work force are no longer considered so viable. Many countries are introducing family friendly policies to make careers and parenthood more compatible. Others are exploring the politically charged option of inviting temporary or seasonal skilled and unskilled workers.
The onset of ageing is comparatively slow in developing countries, where eight per cent of the population is 60 years or older. The United Nations estimates that the number of children in the developing world - currently about two billion - would remain intact until the middle of the century. Much of the focus of governments thus continues to fall on education, health care, and social services for the young.
By 2050, in terms of aging, Asian, Latin American and Caribbean nations would be in the position Europe and North America are today. The challenge for governments in the developing world to come up with the requisite vision and commitment therefore becomes doubly daunting.
Monday, April 23, 2007
A Rare Bright Spot Along Pennsylvania Ave.
With each week, the prospect of a divided government is looming larger in the United States, after Democrats took control of both houses of Congress in January. From the war in Iraq to oversight of the White House, Congress is in a robust mood for action. Yet one important issue is likely to draw the White House and Capitol Hill closer: immigration.
Now that Senator Edward M. Kennedy sees the Bush plan, unveiled by the president in Arizona earlier this month, as “encouraging,” the logjam can be expected to be broken.
An ardent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, President George W. Bush had sought to address the issue early in his first term by, among other things, instituting a “guest worker” program and securing US borders. However, the 9/11 attacks shifted the nation’s focus and resources. Two years ago, when Bush revived his effort to regularize the 12 million illegal immigrants that run US farms, factories and other key sectors, he ran into strong opposition from his own Republican Party. They wanted Bush to construct a fence along the border with Mexico first.
A nation of immigrants, America’s views on the subject traditionally has been influenced by the economic cycle. When unemployment is low and voters feel they are doing well, immigration recedes in importance as a political issue. At around four per cent, unemployment in the United States remains lower than in many industrialized nations. Yet the decline in the quality of jobs available has changed perceptions. Traditional manufacturing jobs have been either outsourced or made redundant by technological advances. Those being created tend to pay less in terms of wages and benefits. Businesses claim they are forced to employ illegal immigrants because Americans are not available or willing to perform those jobs. A skeptical public sees this as an excuse to suppress wages.
Before last November’s congressional elections, Bush signed into law a measure aimed at fencing part of the Mexican border, but that did not help his party. The victorious Democrats insist that reform must address the reality that illegal foreign workers are key to many sectors of the economy. They support a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet strict conditions, such as learning English and paying fines and back taxes. In a highly polarized political environment, the promise of bipartisanship on even one vital national issue does offer some reassurance.
Now that Senator Edward M. Kennedy sees the Bush plan, unveiled by the president in Arizona earlier this month, as “encouraging,” the logjam can be expected to be broken.
An ardent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, President George W. Bush had sought to address the issue early in his first term by, among other things, instituting a “guest worker” program and securing US borders. However, the 9/11 attacks shifted the nation’s focus and resources. Two years ago, when Bush revived his effort to regularize the 12 million illegal immigrants that run US farms, factories and other key sectors, he ran into strong opposition from his own Republican Party. They wanted Bush to construct a fence along the border with Mexico first.
A nation of immigrants, America’s views on the subject traditionally has been influenced by the economic cycle. When unemployment is low and voters feel they are doing well, immigration recedes in importance as a political issue. At around four per cent, unemployment in the United States remains lower than in many industrialized nations. Yet the decline in the quality of jobs available has changed perceptions. Traditional manufacturing jobs have been either outsourced or made redundant by technological advances. Those being created tend to pay less in terms of wages and benefits. Businesses claim they are forced to employ illegal immigrants because Americans are not available or willing to perform those jobs. A skeptical public sees this as an excuse to suppress wages.
Before last November’s congressional elections, Bush signed into law a measure aimed at fencing part of the Mexican border, but that did not help his party. The victorious Democrats insist that reform must address the reality that illegal foreign workers are key to many sectors of the economy. They support a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet strict conditions, such as learning English and paying fines and back taxes. In a highly polarized political environment, the promise of bipartisanship on even one vital national issue does offer some reassurance.
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