The Blair Itch Project

BRITISH Prime Minister Tony Blair appeared flippant when he recently conceded he might have made a mistake by promising to step down before the next general election. In fact, the precise words he used, in remarks to Radio Australia after attending the Commonwealth Games, were “strategic mistake”.
Blair is too smart not to recognize that, by outlasting his predecessors, he has entered a volatile zone. Even the once-invincible Margaret Thatcher had to succumb to her own MPs.
With Iraq threatening to define much of his legacy, Blair recognizes the importance of stepping down when things are in relative good shape. While the worst of Iraq may have already etched itself on his report card, Blair is still vulnerable in other areas. Education and health reforms, together with the ‘loan for peerages’ scandal, could snowball into a major crisis. Blair’s designated successor, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, seems to be getting a little impatient these days. His recent budget speech sounded more like an extended job application, the venerable Financial Times noted in an editorial.
The chancellor, who has observed the chain of command with relative deference, may be less inclined to do so in direct proportion to the frequency with which Blair voices his second thoughts in public.
At moments, Blair, like most people, perhaps ponders the reasons for his success. That palpable but inexplicable gift for winning elections? Deep faith in his own correctness and his ability to eventually convince most Britons of that? Or simple luck? Can his itch for continued incumbency survive the transience of individualism in democratic politics?
Technically, term limits may be an alien concept at No. 10 Downing Street; Blair’s predecessors have contended with the unwritten limits imposed by public perceptions and political realities. Why is Blair regretting having self-imposed his limit?
Perhaps because of the lame-duck status he believes he might have conferred on himself. Even Gordon Brown, after all, knows that having to depend on Tory votes in parliament is no hallmark of strategic smartness.