Making Somalia Too Dangerous For Al Qaeda

The faint possibility of a diplomatic solution to the crisis over Iran’s nuclear weapons program has allowed the Bush administration to overlook – at least publicly – the significance of the fall of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, to Islamists. This does not mean the White House is ignoring the grave implications – both operational and psychological – for America.
During the waning weeks of the first Bush administration, the United States intervened militarily in Somalia, originally to alleviate a major food shortage. It didn’t take long for the mission to expand into full-blown combat against the warlords who had precipitated the food shortage.
After American forces sustained heavy casualties in a fierce operation in Mogadishu, and televised images of Somali rebels dragging a captured American soldier across a street were beam across the world, the new Clinton administration withdrew US troops from the country. Osama bin Laden, in calling for a holy war against the United States, cited that retreat as a reflection of America’s weak resolve.
After 9/11, Washington developed a new interest in Somalia, fearing that it would serve as a base for militant Islamists. The United States maintains a small contingent of Marines and Special Forces at a former French base in neighboring Djibouti. Quietly, these forces are engaged in an important battle of the wider global war on terror.
After longtime ruler Mohammed Siad Barre was toppled in a coup in 1991, Somalia descended into civil war. The country has fractured into chaotic enclaves. In the north, the breakaway region of Somaliland governs itself. In the south, drought threatens hundreds of thousands of lives, with 1.4 million people in need of food assistance. In the town of Baidoa, 250 km inland from the capital, an interim government exists only in name. With no effective government in place at the national, federal level, much of Somalia is ruled by warlords who make their own local laws.
Militias belonging to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) started battling an alliance of warlords in the south, leading to hundreds of deaths. Washington responded by backing the UIC’s rivals, known as the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism.
The UIC proposes Islam as a way to bring unity to Somalia, raising fears among the population of Sharia-sanctioned harsh punishments. However, after taking control of Mogadishu, the group has rejected efforts to project the organization as a Taliban-like monster ready to offer sanctuary to the likes of Al Qaeda.
The scars immortalized in Black Hawk Down, coupled with the quagmire in Iraq, inhibits a full-fledged American military involvement. On the other hand, the fall of a strategic capital to Islamists hits at the heart of the war on terror.
Because of its geographical location, Somalia can affect the stability of the entire region, including Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Situated close to vital trading points between Europe, Asia and Africa, moreover, Somalia is critical to economic stability as well.
Stepped-up American support for the rival warlords might seem ill-advised, considering what Somalia has gone through over the last 15 years. However, it does make sense as a first step toward another policy: making Somalia too dangerous even for Al Qaeda to move in.