Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Grumbling In Global Jihad, Inc.?

With Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi making a 30-minute video appearance on a jihadist website, days after Osama bin Laden’s delivered a fiery audio message, those deciphering the “chatter” must be on overdrive.
A day after the Bin Laden tape was broadcast, three explosions rocked the Sinai Peninsula resort town of Dahab, killing at least 30 people and injuring 160. Most fingers pointed to the Egyptian wing of Al Qaeda.
Throw in Bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri’s appeal last month, and you get the feeling that Zarqawi may be up to something infinitely more devastating.
Or maybe not. Consider the dissonance in the three messages. Bin Laden called for jihadists to extend their focus to Sudan and Kashmir, specifying for the first time India as a target. Al Zawahiri, for his part, sought to focus attention on the Palestinian territories. Consider the other incongruity. When Bin Laden, in this week’s tape, used the West's suspension of financial aid to the Palestinian National Authority as evidence of the "Zionist-Crusaders war on Islam," Hamas immediately sought to distance itself from the jihadists. A Hamas spokesman insisted that his group was interested in good relations with the West. Your enemy’s enemy is not always your friend.
Zarqawi is emphasizing the importance of Iraq in the global jihad. Like any sensible commander, he wants all the resources on his front.
But could Zarqawi’s latest appearance be construed as part of another campaign: asserting his claim to a top leadership role in Al Qaeda – perhaps even replacing Bin Laden?
We’ve already heard a lot about the tensions between Zarqawi and the Al Qaeda supreme leadership. As the most prominent battlefield commander – from his perspective, at least -- Zarqawi must think he deserves greater recognition. By issuing videotapes at a time when the other leaders are mostly limited to voice recordings, Zarqawi may feel ahead of the game.
The foot soldiers spread far and wide, moreover, are more likely to be impressed by the exploits of Zarqawi than by the ideological exhortations of leaders on the run. Could we be witnessing a bitter power struggle in Global Jihad Inc? Keep your eyes and ears open for the next series of tapes.

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