Thursday, May 04, 2006

Chavez, Morales And Bolivar Revolution

Has Hugo Chavez’s imperial presidency finally started building that grand empire for the world’s left? When Bolivian President Evo Morales, following through on a campaign promise, nationalized his country’s oil and natural gas industries this week, the Venezuelan leader’s fingerprints were all over the place.
Morales stunned critics and supporters not by what he did but by the way he did it. Instead of going the legislative route -- which even the most unreconstructed ex-commie cannot avoid paying lip service to – Morales issued a decree befitting Stalin. And that, too, on May Day – the day of the year that fires up the international left to resurrect what much of the world has discarded as a losing cause.
To make himself understood, Morales dispatched the armed forces to secure the oil facilities. That’s the kind of radical overhaul Chavez’s revolution envisaged from its inception seven years ago. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA, after all, is advising the Morales government. Chavez visited Morales to support his actions.
Bolivia is not outright expelling foreign companies in the Salvador Allende tradition. Instead, foreign firms will have to sign new contracts within the next 180 days and agree to channel all their sales through the Bolivian state. If they decline, then they would have to leave the country. In most cases, they will have to hand over 82 percent of production to the state.
The Chavez route has won other adherents, which must be worrying to his critics. Ecuador recently approved a law that allows the government to renegotiate contracts with oil companies. Peru’s presidential candidate Ollanta Humala has promised to nationalize gas reserves and production if he wins the runoff election. At the wider trade level, Bolivia, Venezuela and Cuba recently signed the Peoples' Trade Agreement, ostensibly their answer to the Free Trade Area of the Americas. Latin America’s left, however, is not solidly behind Chavez. Brazil, Chile and Uruguay have leftist governments, but they have not pursued nationalization policies.
Can Morales sustain his policy? Bolivia may have South America's second-largest reserves of natural gas, but its oil industry remains underdeveloped. Unlike Venezuela, Bolivia does not have steady oil revenues to fuel further economic growth.
The poorest country in South America, Bolivia is dependent on foreign investment and expertise to extract and export its huge gas reserves.
Morales is the first person who recognizes that energy revenues are nowhere near boosting social and infrastructure spending and securing the country’s long-term debt sustainability.
The best Bolivia can hope for is tighter conditions for foreign firms. So why has Morales exhibited such boldness? Could it have to do with the fact that Chavez calls his cause the Bolivar Revolution?

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