Thatcher’s Long Shadow On Labour

Confronted with growing calls from within his Labour party for a timetable for his departure, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has a standard response: Although he does not intend to go on and on forever, he cannot and will not offer a deadline because that would paralyze the government and the party.
Over the last 10 days, the latter half of the embattled premier’s argument has sounded increasingly redundant. In the aftermath of Labour's defeat in the May 4 local elections and the cabinet reshuffle that followed, the punditocracy agrees that Blair has lost control of his party.
Plummeting popularity ratings and embittered colleagues are a disastrous recipe in the best of times. With his political authority in tatters, the prospect of Blair serving a full third term as prime minister is fast receding. It is only a matter of time before Gordon Brown, the chancellor of the exchequer and Blair’s heir apparent, is elevated to the top job.
What is less certain – and more germane to Labour’s longevity in power – is the manner in which the transition is completed. In the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, when Blair’s downhill slide accelerated, factional infighting was a luxury Labour could afford. With the Tories in almost perpetual disarray and the Liberal Democrats struggling to expand their base, Labour leaders knew voters had no alternative to putting up with an accumulation of scandals and double dealing in the ruling party.
The Tories have heightened the urgency for Labour to close ranks not just because of their remarkable gains in the local elections. The bad blood left by the dethronement of Margaret Thatcher in 1990 emaciated the Conservatives for a decade. Tory leader David Cameron is yet to prove he can lead his party back to power. But that prospect can only grow with a deepening of the succession struggle in Labour.
A transition plan should not be that difficult to work out. In exchange for an explicit commitment to step down -- most pundits believe some time next year would be propitious -- Blair could demand Brown’s full support for the remainder of his agenda.
Pensions, nuclear energy, health and education are but a few areas that need Blair’s undivided attention if the premier is to leave behind a lasting legacy.
Blair’s success there would strengthen Brown’s ability to implement the party agenda and to lead a united Labour to another electoral victory.