Monday, July 03, 2006

Iran In Putin’s G-8 Gambit

In the run-up to the Group of Eight (G-8) summit he is hosting later this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sounding increasingly assured about his country’s role in that exclusive club and the wider world.
Although Russia has been invited to attend annual summits of the world’s industrialized democracies for some years now, this is the first year it has been accepted as a full member of the G-8.
In fact, Moscow was invited to join the G-8 without having attained the economic or democratic development of the other members -- United States, Canada, Japan, Britain, Germany, France and Italy. This exception was made in an effort to spur Russia’s continued progress on the road of free-market economic reforms and as a reward for the post-Soviet democratization process.
As the host of the July 15-17 summit, Putin has shaped the agenda around energy, education, and the eradication of infectious diseases. European nations rely significantly on Russian natural gas supplies. Moscow, which exports oil around the world, recognizes competitively stable energy prices as the key to its long-term economic prosperity.
The other G-8 members, too, have energy high on their minds – but in a less enthusiastic spirit. The Kremlin’s recent effort to tighten control over energy exports has raised concern in Europe. The Putin administration’s suspension of natural gas supplies to Ukraine several months ago – ostensibly for the former Soviet republic’s efforts to pull itself out of Moscow’s orbit -- left Europe with shortages. Europeans seeking assurances of reliable gas supplies from Russia confront a government setting most of the terms.
On the political front, Russia is sliding back to a form of authoritarianism, although not exactly Soviet-style repression. Moscow, moreover, is growing more confrontational in the articulation and implementation of foreign policy.
With Russia having turned its back to the political and economic obligations underpinning its G-8 membership, Putin could find himself having to justify Moscow’s continued presence in the organization.
Putin, for his part, can be expected to use the Iran nuclear crisis to establish Russia’s credentials as a responsible international player, mindful of its effectiveness in deflecting criticism of the Kremlin’s domestic and foreign policies.

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