From his stride and stridency, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is increasingly looking like the standard-bearer of the International Left his detractors have long claimed he has hungered for.
Chavez’s recent visits to Russia, Iran, Malaysia, Mali, Angola and China clearly reflected the resoluteness of his quest for global influence. If he gets that temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council, you can expect the Chavez to amplify his attitudes and approach.
Of late, a growing number of realists have sought to play down the substance of the Chavez phenomenon. His incessant anti-American rhetoric may actually be driven by political compulsions at home. And his ability to hold America hostage by cutting off oil sales? Probably considerable. Yet recognition of that threat has given some way to a realization that the United States imports only about 12 percent of its petroleum needs from Venezuela. The United States, on the other hand, accounts for more than half of Venezuela’s oil receipts.
Chavez’s announcement last week of plans for a six-fold increase in oil sales to China over the next 10 years might have more bark than bite. For one thing, China currently imports only about two percent of its oil needs from Venezuela. Moreover, there are geographical and technical challenges to overcome before the trickle becomes a flow. Even if Caracas-induced pain were to bite the Americans, they could perhaps expect to get palliatives elsewhere. Chavez the economic threat might not be one worth losing sleep over.
What about Chavez the politician? The Venezuelan president has been achieving growing political influence in his neighborhood and other parts of the developing world. With anti-Americanism set to become the stock in trade for the foreseeable future, Chavez can expect to count on an expanding constituency.
Oil profits have funded Venezuela’s multibillion-dollar arms purchases from Russia, including jet fighters, military helicopters and assault rifles. As a former military man who still needs to nurture sections of that constituency, the imperative of re-equipping the armed forces cannot be overlooked, especially if it also means boosting Venezuelans pride in themselves. The downside, of course, is that Chavez operates in an environment where belligerency can break out at extremely short notice.
From another standpoint, the outlook is more assuring. The United States has lived with Cuba’s Fidel Castro for almost five decades. There should be few reasons to doubt its ability to coexist with his anointed successor.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Sunday, August 20, 2006
Malaysia: An Opening For Anwar
Anwar Ibrahim, the disgraced former deputy prime minister of Malaysia, must be marveling at the sudden auspiciousness that seems to be coming his way. Tensions have escalating between former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and his designated successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
As a one-time Mahathir heir apparent, Anwar knows the price of insubordination. During the Asian financial meltdown nine years ago, Anwar suggested Malaysia should follow the International Monetary Fund’s road to recovery. That was something Mahathir had no patience for. Once Anwar fell out of Mahathir’s favor, he careened on a relentless course of legal woes ranging from sodomy to slush funds.
Abdullah, who replaced Anwar as Mahathir’s designated successor, was careful not to ruffle the boss’s feathers. Even after he rose to the top job three years ago, Abdullah continued to extend more than palpable deference. The assurance of office seems to have inspired Abdullah to make his own mark on Malaysia. He scrapped one of Mahathir’s pet projects -- a bridge between Singapore and Malaysia – triggering a war of words between the two.
Abdullah benefits from the fact that the ruling United Malays National Organization is divided on the bridge issue. Mahathir, for his part, understands how Abdullah has squandered much of his political capital through delays in implementing the anti-corruption policies he had once pledged. In this cleavage, Anwar sees a clear opportunity for his Keadilan party.
Although he was cleared of his sodomy conviction, Anwar is banned from standing for party office or for parliament until April 2008. Abdullah could use him to consecrate his final rupture with Mahathir and his power base.
If Abdullah is as serious as he sounds, he may be willing to pay the full price by lifting the ban on Anwar’s political activity. The whole realignment is likely to proceed slowly and quietly. If Anwar’s legal travails have taught him one thing, it is the virtue of patience.
As a one-time Mahathir heir apparent, Anwar knows the price of insubordination. During the Asian financial meltdown nine years ago, Anwar suggested Malaysia should follow the International Monetary Fund’s road to recovery. That was something Mahathir had no patience for. Once Anwar fell out of Mahathir’s favor, he careened on a relentless course of legal woes ranging from sodomy to slush funds.
Abdullah, who replaced Anwar as Mahathir’s designated successor, was careful not to ruffle the boss’s feathers. Even after he rose to the top job three years ago, Abdullah continued to extend more than palpable deference. The assurance of office seems to have inspired Abdullah to make his own mark on Malaysia. He scrapped one of Mahathir’s pet projects -- a bridge between Singapore and Malaysia – triggering a war of words between the two.
Abdullah benefits from the fact that the ruling United Malays National Organization is divided on the bridge issue. Mahathir, for his part, understands how Abdullah has squandered much of his political capital through delays in implementing the anti-corruption policies he had once pledged. In this cleavage, Anwar sees a clear opportunity for his Keadilan party.
Although he was cleared of his sodomy conviction, Anwar is banned from standing for party office or for parliament until April 2008. Abdullah could use him to consecrate his final rupture with Mahathir and his power base.
If Abdullah is as serious as he sounds, he may be willing to pay the full price by lifting the ban on Anwar’s political activity. The whole realignment is likely to proceed slowly and quietly. If Anwar’s legal travails have taught him one thing, it is the virtue of patience.
Monday, August 14, 2006
Guenter Grass: Courage In Contrition
Former Polish President Lech Walesa wants German writer Guenter Grass to give up his honorary citizenship of Gdansk for having served in the Waffen SS. A seasoned left-wing campaigner and pacifist, Grass this weekend shocked the world by admitting he had been in the notorious elite force that underpinned one of the most abominable regimes known to humanity
Until now, it was only known that the Nobel Prizewinner had served as a soldier and was wounded and taken prisoner by US forces.
Grass was born in 1927 in Gdansk, then known as Danzig, the birthplace of Walesa's Solidarity movement, which began the final phase of the battle against Soviet communism. The Waffen SS was the combat arm of Adolf Hitler's notorious elite force, which expanded to nearly one million members during World War II.
The SS had a reputation for brutality toward soldiers and civilians in Nazi-occupied Europe. It ran the death camps in which millions of people - mostly Jews - were murdered.
For someone who wrote an acclaimed anti-Nazi novel -- The Tin Drum – Grass’s decades of silence smacked of dishonesty. Walesa, a Nobel peace laureate and honorary citizen of Gdansk, was right when he said the German author would never have received the honor had it been known he was in the SS.
Yet it is equally true that the world would not have known of Grass’ SS role had he not had the courage to acknowledge it. Burdened by this silence, Grass finally chose to speak. He told the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that he had been drafted at the age of 17 into an SS tank division and had served in Dresden. Few details of his service are known other than that he had served in the Frundsberg Panzer Division after failing to get a posting in the submarine service. This much we know: Grass was no Heinrich Himmler.
Clearly, Grass has suffered immensely in silence for his dark past. The latest revelation certainly casts a shadow on his legacy. His contrition – courageous in no small measure – should count for something.
Until now, it was only known that the Nobel Prizewinner had served as a soldier and was wounded and taken prisoner by US forces.
Grass was born in 1927 in Gdansk, then known as Danzig, the birthplace of Walesa's Solidarity movement, which began the final phase of the battle against Soviet communism. The Waffen SS was the combat arm of Adolf Hitler's notorious elite force, which expanded to nearly one million members during World War II.
The SS had a reputation for brutality toward soldiers and civilians in Nazi-occupied Europe. It ran the death camps in which millions of people - mostly Jews - were murdered.
For someone who wrote an acclaimed anti-Nazi novel -- The Tin Drum – Grass’s decades of silence smacked of dishonesty. Walesa, a Nobel peace laureate and honorary citizen of Gdansk, was right when he said the German author would never have received the honor had it been known he was in the SS.
Yet it is equally true that the world would not have known of Grass’ SS role had he not had the courage to acknowledge it. Burdened by this silence, Grass finally chose to speak. He told the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that he had been drafted at the age of 17 into an SS tank division and had served in Dresden. Few details of his service are known other than that he had served in the Frundsberg Panzer Division after failing to get a posting in the submarine service. This much we know: Grass was no Heinrich Himmler.
Clearly, Grass has suffered immensely in silence for his dark past. The latest revelation certainly casts a shadow on his legacy. His contrition – courageous in no small measure – should count for something.
Friday, August 04, 2006
The Plot Thickens In Cuba
Even the most inveterate critic of the Fidel Castro regime in Cuba must find the silence emanating from Havana disturbing. Raul, the brother to whom Fidel transferred his powers to five days ago, is yet to make a public appearance. Were the dancers in Miami premature or prescient?
Has Raul gone into hiding in an elaborate attempt to identify and liquidate rivals in an effort to consolidate power? Or has a third element, possibly from within the armed forces, taken over the island nation that has vexed nine American presidents? If so, who might that be?
It seems easier to believe that Fidel is dead than to accept that Raul has been overthrown. For someone close to 80, surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding carries significant risks. Dr. Castro’s personal lifestyle may have raised the threshold several notches.
Raul, on the other hand, is understood to have the strong backing of the Cuban military. According to his hagiography, Raul played a central role in the revolution. More conspicuous is the fact that he has served as defense minister for most of the past half century. And, moreover, he is the senior-most vice-president. However, it was precisely on Raul’s strength within the military that he has long been assumed the heir apparent. It’s a different matter if someone more ambitious within the armed forces has emerged without the legions of Cuba watchers around the world knowing him.
President George W. Bush recently signed a report of the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba, stating America’s intention to undermine a Castro-to-Castro transition of power. But, now, the White House is probably the most anxious constituency outside Cuba to see that Raul finally emerges in full control.
Bush understands how easily chaos in Cuba can convulse Miami. The president’s brother, Governor Jeb Bush, already has enough on his plate in the form of the November elections. The Guantanamo Bay crisis, moreover, could take on separate – and potentially more serious – dimensions.
Bush’s worries don’t stop there. If Raul fails to appear, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez could feel further emboldened to take up from where Fidel left. Unless, of course, Fidel appears on TV to announce his return to work.
Has Raul gone into hiding in an elaborate attempt to identify and liquidate rivals in an effort to consolidate power? Or has a third element, possibly from within the armed forces, taken over the island nation that has vexed nine American presidents? If so, who might that be?
It seems easier to believe that Fidel is dead than to accept that Raul has been overthrown. For someone close to 80, surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding carries significant risks. Dr. Castro’s personal lifestyle may have raised the threshold several notches.
Raul, on the other hand, is understood to have the strong backing of the Cuban military. According to his hagiography, Raul played a central role in the revolution. More conspicuous is the fact that he has served as defense minister for most of the past half century. And, moreover, he is the senior-most vice-president. However, it was precisely on Raul’s strength within the military that he has long been assumed the heir apparent. It’s a different matter if someone more ambitious within the armed forces has emerged without the legions of Cuba watchers around the world knowing him.
President George W. Bush recently signed a report of the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba, stating America’s intention to undermine a Castro-to-Castro transition of power. But, now, the White House is probably the most anxious constituency outside Cuba to see that Raul finally emerges in full control.
Bush understands how easily chaos in Cuba can convulse Miami. The president’s brother, Governor Jeb Bush, already has enough on his plate in the form of the November elections. The Guantanamo Bay crisis, moreover, could take on separate – and potentially more serious – dimensions.
Bush’s worries don’t stop there. If Raul fails to appear, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez could feel further emboldened to take up from where Fidel left. Unless, of course, Fidel appears on TV to announce his return to work.
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