Anwar Ibrahim, the disgraced former deputy prime minister of Malaysia, must be marveling at the sudden auspiciousness that seems to be coming his way. Tensions have escalating between former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and his designated successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
As a one-time Mahathir heir apparent, Anwar knows the price of insubordination. During the Asian financial meltdown nine years ago, Anwar suggested Malaysia should follow the International Monetary Fund’s road to recovery. That was something Mahathir had no patience for. Once Anwar fell out of Mahathir’s favor, he careened on a relentless course of legal woes ranging from sodomy to slush funds.
Abdullah, who replaced Anwar as Mahathir’s designated successor, was careful not to ruffle the boss’s feathers. Even after he rose to the top job three years ago, Abdullah continued to extend more than palpable deference. The assurance of office seems to have inspired Abdullah to make his own mark on Malaysia. He scrapped one of Mahathir’s pet projects -- a bridge between Singapore and Malaysia – triggering a war of words between the two.
Abdullah benefits from the fact that the ruling United Malays National Organization is divided on the bridge issue. Mahathir, for his part, understands how Abdullah has squandered much of his political capital through delays in implementing the anti-corruption policies he had once pledged. In this cleavage, Anwar sees a clear opportunity for his Keadilan party.
Although he was cleared of his sodomy conviction, Anwar is banned from standing for party office or for parliament until April 2008. Abdullah could use him to consecrate his final rupture with Mahathir and his power base.
If Abdullah is as serious as he sounds, he may be willing to pay the full price by lifting the ban on Anwar’s political activity. The whole realignment is likely to proceed slowly and quietly. If Anwar’s legal travails have taught him one thing, it is the virtue of patience.
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