The Plot Thickens In Cuba

Even the most inveterate critic of the Fidel Castro regime in Cuba must find the silence emanating from Havana disturbing. Raul, the brother to whom Fidel transferred his powers to five days ago, is yet to make a public appearance. Were the dancers in Miami premature or prescient?
Has Raul gone into hiding in an elaborate attempt to identify and liquidate rivals in an effort to consolidate power? Or has a third element, possibly from within the armed forces, taken over the island nation that has vexed nine American presidents? If so, who might that be?
It seems easier to believe that Fidel is dead than to accept that Raul has been overthrown. For someone close to 80, surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding carries significant risks. Dr. Castro’s personal lifestyle may have raised the threshold several notches.
Raul, on the other hand, is understood to have the strong backing of the Cuban military. According to his hagiography, Raul played a central role in the revolution. More conspicuous is the fact that he has served as defense minister for most of the past half century. And, moreover, he is the senior-most vice-president. However, it was precisely on Raul’s strength within the military that he has long been assumed the heir apparent. It’s a different matter if someone more ambitious within the armed forces has emerged without the legions of Cuba watchers around the world knowing him.
President George W. Bush recently signed a report of the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba, stating America’s intention to undermine a Castro-to-Castro transition of power. But, now, the White House is probably the most anxious constituency outside Cuba to see that Raul finally emerges in full control.
Bush understands how easily chaos in Cuba can convulse Miami. The president’s brother, Governor Jeb Bush, already has enough on his plate in the form of the November elections. The Guantanamo Bay crisis, moreover, could take on separate – and potentially more serious – dimensions.
Bush’s worries don’t stop there. If Raul fails to appear, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez could feel further emboldened to take up from where Fidel left. Unless, of course, Fidel appears on TV to announce his return to work.